North Star Nook 4/29

Brulin', Housing Supply, Envrio NIMBY, Factfulness

I hope all is well in your worlds. This is my dad’s last week of work- he retires Friday after 30+ years as a Public Defender, next newsletter may be a reflection of that. His retirement/career has occupied a lot of my headspace and the impact it has had on me. I am really happy he gets to hang it up and enjoy life unencumbered with work.

I’ve started fishing the Brule again and am hours away from finishing building my own fly rod, which has been a really fun process but I’ll admit that I have had a fair amount of decision paralysis when it came to starting the project and diving in. I decided to just fully commit to the project and do it. There are certainly some things I would do differently next time around, but I could get critical at my lack of experience or like a teacher my buddy recently had “Stop telling me what you did wrong and why don’t you focus on what you did well?”. Take that bit of wisdom into your week!

Rent Relief is Possible (in Some Cities!): Why the Apartment Boom is Nudging Prices Down

I was recently having coffee with a friend and she asked me “so are all of these apartments getting built here in Duluth really helping, are they needed?” It’s a question that I do get a fair amount. The answer is- there is a significant need for this housing and yes, once you build enough to exceed demand rent will stop its stratospheric trajectory.

For years, it feels like the only direction has been up. Finding an affordable place has felt like searching for a needle in a haystack. But lately, there's a subtle shift happening in the rental market, and it's tied to something we haven't seen in a while: a boom in new apartment construction.

Basic Economics: Supply Matters

Remember Econ 101? When supply goes up, prices often soften. Housing is one of the only true elastic markets. That's exactly what we're starting to see in the rental world. After years of underbuilding following the Great Recession, developers finally ramped up construction. Recent years, especially 2023 and 2024, saw a record number of new apartment units hitting the market – the most in decades, according to some reports (Apartment List National Rent Report, Realtor.com Economic Research).

This influx of new apartments means more options for renters. Landlords in many areas are finding they have more empty units (higher vacancy rates) and can't push rents quite as aggressively. In some places, they're even having to lower them or offer concessions like a month of free rent to attract tenants (Will Rent Prices Go Down in 2024? 3 Factors to Consider. | Nasdaq, NerdWallet).

A Minnesota Example: The Minneapolis 2040 Effect?

Closer to home here in Minnesota, we saw a major effort to tackle housing costs through supply with the Minneapolis 2040 plan. Starting around 2020, the city made some bold moves: expanding (notice I didn’t say eliminate, because it wasn’t eliminated. This is language pro housing people need to adopt) single-family-only zoning to allow duplexes and triplexes citywide, encouraging more apartments along transit routes, and ditching mandatory parking minimums for new builds (Pew, Planetizen). The stated goal was clear: allow for an increase in the overall housing supply to result in lower housing costs than would occur otherwise (Minneapolis 2040 Plan).

Now, it wasn't without challenges – lawsuits and debates followed. But what happened with rents? Data comparing the period from 2017 to 2022 showed Minneapolis's housing stock grew significantly faster than the rest of Minnesota (12% vs 4%). During that same time, rents in Minneapolis barely budged, growing just 1%, while statewide rents climbed 14% (Pew). While many factors influence rent, that correlation is hard to ignore and suggests that boosting supply really can help put the brakes on runaway rent growth.

Where Else Are We Seeing Rent Drops?

While Minneapolis saw stabilization, other cities, particularly those with massive recent construction booms, are experiencing outright rent decreases:

• Sun Belt: Cities across the Sun Belt, which saw explosive rent growth during the pandemic, are now seeing some of the most significant relief. Austin, TX, is a prime example, with notable rent decreases reported (Newsweek, Realtor.com Economic Research). Other southern cities like Memphis, Nashville, Atlanta, Dallas, and Phoenix have also experienced rent drops as supply outpaces immediate demand (Realtor.com Economic Research, Realtor.com Economic Research).

• Other Notable Decreases: It's not just the Sun Belt. Data points to rent declines in places like:

  • Denver, CO (Realtor.com Economic Research, Newsweek)

  • Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA (projected sharp drop) (Construction Coverage)

  • Asheville, NC (Construction Coverage)

  • Riverside, CA (Realtor.com Economic Research)

  • San Francisco, CA (Realtor.com Economic Research)

  • Chicago, IL (Realtor.com Economic Research)

Hold On, Not Everywhere...

I don’t want to be naive and Pollyanna! While the new supply is putting downward pressure on rents nationally (with slight year-over-year declines reported overall in late 2024/early 2025), some regions are holding steadier. Markets in parts of the Midwest (outside of Minneapolis's unique situation) and Northeast, which didn't see quite the same level of frantic building, might still have tighter vacancy rates and more stable or even rising rents (CBRE, RentCafe).

Takeaway

The rental market is complex, influenced by jobs, migration, and overall economic health. But right now, the sheer volume of new apartments coming online is providing some much-needed breathing room for renters in many parts of the country, either through slower increases like we saw evidence of in Minneapolis, or actual price drops elsewhere. It's a welcome sign that the market is responding, albeit slowly, to the supply-and-demand equation. Keep an eye on your local market – you might be surprised at the deals you can find. And there is trouble ahead and signs that this was temporary progress or relief. As highlighted in the graph below, permits are down meaning we are likely going to be building less- and add in market uncertainty from the current administration we are likely going to fall further behind our housing production needs. Now more than ever it is critical to talk about building more housing.

I got a fair amount of interest in my NIMBY argument post the other week. And touching on the Minneapolis 2040 plan above, I would be remiss to not talk about one of the NIMBY’s most utilized procedural tools, see below!

"Environmental NIMBYism": How Housing Gets Blocked in the Name of Green

The need for more housing across Minnesota, Duluth and the country is undeniable. Yet, constructing new homes often faces significant hurdles. One increasingly common tactic involves leveraging environmental regulations, not always for their intended ecological purpose, but to slow or stop housing development altogether. This phenomenon, sometimes called "environmental NIMBYism," deserves a closer look.

Two articles, one from the Housing Affordability Institute and another from Climate Resolve, offer valuable insights into how this dynamic works and why it matters for anyone concerned about housing availability and affordability.

Mechanics of Obstruction

At its core, environmental NIMBYism involves using environmental review processes – established by laws like California's CEQA or our own Minnesota Environmental Rights Act (MERA) – as tools to block housing projects that opponents dislike for reasons unrelated to genuine environmental protection.

• Broad Scope, Strategic Use: As the Housing Affordability Institute piece details, environmental reviews can cover a vast array of impacts. Beyond core issues like water and air quality, they often include traffic, noise, parking, aesthetics, and neighborhood character. This broad scope allows opponents ("Not In My Backyard"-ers) to find grounds for challenges or lawsuits, even if the primary objection is simply opposition to new development or increased density in their area.

• Process as a Barrier: The legal and procedural challenges themselves become significant barriers. Demanding extensive environmental impact studies or filing lawsuits can cause long delays and dramatically increase project costs. This tactic can effectively kill projects, not necessarily by proving environmental harm, but by making them financially unviable or politically untenable. The Housing Affordability Institute notes the high percentage of California housing projects facing such challenges, and Minnesotans saw a version of this when environmental review lawsuits were used to stall the Minneapolis 2040 plan, which aimed to allow more housing types citywide.

Consequences Beyond Housing Supply

The impact isn't just fewer homes being built. Blocking housing, particularly more dense infill development, has wider ramifications:

• Climate Costs: As Climate Resolve argues, obstructing housing production, especially in urban and suburban areas near transit and jobs, often pushes development outward. This contributes to sprawl, necessitates longer car commutes, and ultimately increases greenhouse gas emissions – directly undermining climate action goals. Allowing more people to live closer to where they work, shop, and learn is a fundamental climate strategy, but environmental NIMBYism often stands in the way.

• Exacerbating Inequity: The Climate Resolve article also links this obstruction to the legacy of exclusionary zoning. When new housing options are blocked in desirable neighborhoods, it disproportionately affects lower- and middle-income households, often forcing them further from opportunities and into areas potentially more vulnerable to climate impacts like extreme heat or flooding.

• Hindering Affordability: Fundamentally, limiting the supply of new housing while demand remains high contributes directly to rising rents and home prices, impacting affordability across the board.

Potential Paths Forward

Addressing this issue requires balancing legitimate environmental protection with the urgent need for more housing. The articles suggest potential avenues for reform:

• Refocusing Reviews: Ensuring environmental reviews concentrate on significant ecological impacts rather than subjective neighborhood concerns like traffic or aesthetics, which are better addressed through standard planning processes.

• Streamlining Processes: Creating more efficient review pathways for needed housing projects, particularly those that align with environmental goals (like infill or transit-oriented development).

• Targeted Exemptions & Pro-Housing Policies: Implementing policies like CEQA exemptions for certain affordable housing projects in California, or eliminating parking mandates near transit, can remove specific bottlenecks without sacrificing core environmental standards. I worked on removing mandatory parking minimums while on the Council here in Duluth.

Understanding environmental NIMBYism is crucial. It highlights how well-intentioned regulations can be diverted from their purpose, ultimately hindering progress on housing affordability, equity, and even climate action. Finding ways to build the homes we need while upholding genuine environmental protection requires acknowledging and addressing this complex challenge.

Neighbors For More Neighbors

I’m interested in starting a local group of folks that are pro housing and pro more neighbors. I’m not certain what this group will fully look like but I think part of it is advocating for smart development or sharing and consumption of information on development, pro housing, pro neighborhood that collectively elevates the local IQ and thought when it comes to how we move our community. If you’re interested email or let me know! (thanks to those that have already responded!)

Factfulness

I think it is broadly assumed that education is a basic human right these days. However this assumption or widespread access? It's new, on the grand timeline of human history, we're talking only about a lifetime ago, if that.

The numbers on this – specifically, the share of adults (over 15, for the record) who've actually sat through some form of basic schooling.

Go back to the early 1800s. If you weren't born into the right family, education wasn't happening. Education was a luxury item. The stats are pretty stark: fewer than 1 in 5 adults globally had the chance to get any formal education. This was strictly for the elite.

Today, the ratio is reversed. Fewer than 1 in 5 adults has not received any formal education. Read that sentence again slowly. Society has changed this entirely in roughly 200 years. That's significant progress.

This isn't just about having a school building down the street. It shows up massively in literacy. Reading and writing? Niche skills for the few back then. Now? Basic literacy is standard for the vast majority of adults on Earth.

It's one of those quiet, profound changes. A genuine demonstration of actually making serious headway on leveling the playing field and unlocking potential on a massive scale.

Listening, Reading Watching

Listening- Honky Tonk Heroes. I am not a fan of what country music is today. And I wasn’t much of a fan of the old stuff growing up (I had so much Springsteen to work though). But over the past five or so years I’ve been digging into the classics and especially “Outlaw Country”. I do find the shift in country music fascinating as well as the whole what passes as “masculine” in today’s country music compared to the masculinity of past country stars. If someone knows of a fun article or book on the topic pass it my way!

Reading- Bob Uecker Catcher in the Wry. RIP to one of the great baseball men of all time. The book is what you would expect, full of self deprecating humor and baseball anecdotes. Pick it up at your local library!

Watching- War Games- After working on finishing our basement bathroom I just turned it on having never seen it. I found it entertaining.