North Star Nook 2/28
Factfulness, Housing Scene, LRW, Twins, Trumps SS Tax Cut Mirage
I hope you’re navigating the world alright. One of the helpful newsletters that I read is from Oliver Burkemen The Imperfectionist, helpful to put things into context into what is uncertain times at the moment.
Things I’m looking forward to
Getting my seeds started for the garden
Baseball starting, the Twins and the high school I coach at
Getting out ice fishing once or twice more
Watching Gene Hackman films that I haven’t watched yet
Factfulness
Good News: Extreme Poverty Down, But Still a Challenge
Here's some genuinely good news: over the last generation, we've made massive strides in reducing extreme poverty worldwide.
Big Drop: More than a billion fewer people are living in extreme poverty today compared to 1990. That's very significant
Daily Progress: On average, about 130,000 people escaped extreme poverty every single day.
Mission Not Accomplished:
Even with the progress, around 650 million people, or about one in twelve, still live on less than $2.15 a day.
While we've made amazing progress, we still have a long way to go to eliminate extreme poverty entirely.
Housing Scene
The Feds
HUD Cuts: A Looming Disaster for Affordable Housing
The Trump administration's push for budget cuts and staff reductions at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is raising alarm bells across the country. With the US facing a severe housing crisis, these cuts threaten to worsen the situation and leave vulnerable communities struggling even more.
HUD: A Lifeline for Many
HUD plays a crucial role in supporting affordable housing initiatives nationwide. Its programs provide:
Rental assistance: Helping millions of households afford rental units.
Funding for affordable housing development: Supporting the construction and preservation of affordable homes.
Community development grants: Investing in infrastructure, including housing-related projects.
Fair housing enforcement: Protecting renters from discrimination.
Housing counseling: Guiding individuals and families through the complexities of housing.
Disaster recovery: Providing crucial aid after events like floods and hurricanes.
The Impact of Cuts
Experts and community leaders warn that HUD cuts will have far-reaching consequences:
Increased homelessness: Fewer resources mean fewer people can get the help they need to find and keep stable housing.
Worsening affordability: Cuts to development programs will limit the supply of affordable housing, driving up costs for everyone.
Strained communities: Reduced support for infrastructure and community development will leave towns and cities struggling to meet basic needs.
Disproportionate impact on vulnerable groups: Seniors, people with disabilities, and low-income families will be hit the hardest.
Impact:
HUD cuts are not just about numbers on a budget sheet. They represent real people losing their homes, communities struggling to provide basic services, and a nation failing to meet the fundamental need for safe and affordable housing. HUD has long been underinvested in if anything and our country would benefit with HUD having more resources not less.
Minnesota
Minnesota, like much of the US, is grappling with a serious housing shortage. This has driven up prices, making it tough for everyone from first-time buyers to seniors looking to downsize. To tackle this, a diverse coalition of faith groups, developers, and lawmakers are back with a revised plan to boost housing affordability.
Issue:
Shortage of homes: More people are competing for fewer homes, driving up prices.
Rising costs: Median mortgage payments have doubled in the past five years.
Restrictive local rules: Zoning, permitting, and building requirements make development slow and expensive.
Solution: YIMBY and a New Approach
The coalition, a state-level "Yes In My Backyard" (YIMBY) movement, believes building more housing in more places is key. They're shifting their strategy this year:
Targeted bills: Instead of one big bill, they'll focus on specific, incremental changes.
Bipartisan collaboration: Working with both Republicans and Democrats to find common ground.
Addressing local concerns: Engaging with cities and rural areas to tailor solutions.
Proposals:
"Starter Homes Act": Encouraging the construction of smaller, more affordable homes like townhomes, duplexes, and accessory dwelling units (ADUs) in new developments.
HOA Reform: Increasing oversight and accountability for homeowners' associations to protect residents from abusive practices.
Building Code Review: Exploring ways to streamline the state building code to reduce construction costs without compromising safety.
Fee Caps: Potentially capping the fees developers pay to local governments during construction.
Potential Snags:
Local control: Cities are resistant to state-imposed restrictions on zoning and land use.
Balancing affordability and quality: Ensuring that cost-cutting measures don't compromise building safety.
Outlook:
With a divided legislature, bipartisan support is crucial. While challenges remain, the focus on collaboration and incremental change could pave the way for a more affordable housing market in Minnesota.
Listening, Reading, Watching
Listening - Preludes - Warren Zevon. I always enjoy when albums are released of previously unreleased music. I feel you can really gage how talented a musician is by the stuff they don’t put out. Preludes is sixteen unreleased recordings, six which have never been released on any Zevon album, and were all recorded prior to 1978.
Reading - Pet Sematary horror is not my preferred reading material but Stephen King is one heck of a writer and is worth reading his work just for how descriptive he is about landscapes and people and interactions. Much spookier than the movies!
Watching - Reacher - I will preface, this is not the greatest television. But the show doesn’t pretend to be and embraces how fun it is. Plus it is the main character Reacher’s actor Alan Ritchson is one gigantic human being, something Tom Cruise is not in the same role in the movie.
As always if you have suggestions email them or throw them in the comments!
Twins Tidbits: Sunshine, Bullpens, and... Well, Let's Not Talk About That.
Record: 3-2
Spring training is officially buzzing! And the Twins have already beat the Yankees I know, I know, it's just spring training. But I have been scared from years of getting throttled by the Yankees so beating them always feels good, right? From 2000-2024 it has been a slog.
There is something magical about spring training broadcast. A wave of baseball-induced amnesia is washed over you and you forget the frustrations of last years season, and you're filled with a fresh, hopeful feeling again.
And speaking of hope, the projections are looking pretty good! A lot of experts are picking the Twins to win the division. And, of course, the ever-reliable Hobbs Projection (TM) has the Twins going all the way to the World Series... again! (what’s life without hope?)
One of the biggest strengths we're hearing about is the Twins bullpen. They were supposed to be stellar last year, but injuries took its toll. I do think the Twins are in a better position than last year to weather injuries. Here’s my take on the bullpen, ranked by who I think will be most effective: (denotes nicknames)
Griffin Jax
Jhoan Duran - Still betting on him as our "closer.”
Brock Stewart (Beef Stew)
Cole Sands
Louie Varland
Justin Topa
Danny Coulombe (Frenchie)
Michael Tonkin
Now, you’ve likely heard and I'm still processing. But the "potential Twins buyer switching to the White Sox" thing? Yeah, that's a sore subject right now. Maybe we can revisit that later.
For now, I’m focused on the sunshine, the crack of the bat, soon to be smell of fresh cut grass, and the promise of a great season!
Talking Points
I’ve observed online that many MAGA supporters have simplified any criticism of this administration into the catchphrase “Orange Man Bad.” or that dissenters have “TDS" Trump Derangement Syndrome. While it’s true that a small group of people may fit into this category, it’s important to recognize that many others have legitimate concerns and policy disagreements with the MAGA agenda.
One consistent thread I see running through much of his policy is a focus on making the wealthy even wealthier. Take, for example, the proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security
TL;DR:
Is a tax cut that mainly benefits the wealthy and gives only modest relief to the middle class worth the risk of jeopardizing Social Security and Medicare for millions? Or burdening future generations with significant financial strain? This policy creates a "winners today, losers tomorrow" situation.
If I were in Congress, I’d start by eliminating the income cap on Social Security taxes (currently set at $176,100). Once that’s done, we can talk about removing taxes on Social Security benefits. This would make the system fairer and help ensure its long-term solvency.
Talking Points: Social Security Tax Cut: A $550 Illusion, A Trillion-Dollar Risk, and a Generational Divide
The Promise vs. The Reality:
The proposal offers an average $550 tax cut on Social Security benefits, but it’s important to understand who truly benefits and the long-term consequences.
The Mirage: The “average” $550 cut masks significant disparities in who actually sees meaningful benefits.
Who Wins:
The Wealthy: The top 0.1% (earning $5 million+) receive an average $2,500 cut.
Middle/Upper-Middle Class: Households earning $63,000-$200,000 see the largest benefit relative to their income.
Lower-Income Households: Households earning $32,000 or less see little to no change—most benefits are untaxed.
Those earning $32,000-$60,000 get just a $90 tax cut on average.
Tax Cut Distribution:
Less than 1% of low-income households benefit.
28% of middle-income households benefit.
20% of the top 0.1% benefit.
A Trillion-Dollar Gamble:
This tax cut could lead to a $1.5 trillion reduction in Social Security and Medicare revenues over the next decade.
This reduction accelerates the insolvency of these crucial programs, putting future generations at risk of significant benefit cuts.
The Generational Divide:
Current Retirees/Near-Retirees:
High-income retirees gain between $11,000 and $135,000.
Lower-income retirees gain between $1,000 and $2,000.
Future Generations:
Households born 20 years from now could lose $11,700 to $22,000.
Households born today could lose $9,200 to $14,100.
Why Future Generations Lose:
Reduced incentives for saving for retirement.
Increased federal debt.
Declining capital and wages, which will limit economic opportunities.